Impact of the geopolitical situation on transport and operating costs, increased supply difficulties, sluggish demand in Europe, the growing weight of eco-certifications… Internationally, the timber trade requires great resilience from industry players. In the midst of the storm, having solid stocks becomes an asset, but exports remain an opportunity to seize.

Between the conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, a sluggish construction market and a blocked political situation in France, timber construction is weathering the storm. All while gaining market share. "Whether it's rough or planed timber, we had an excellent year in 2025 and a good start to 2026," says Julien Renaud, head of Henry Timber. "The timber sector is doing better than general activity and other materials, and specialized timber agencies are holding up better."

That said, for François Laresche, former president of the LCB and vice-president of the UICCB, the heart of the problem "lies in the market's acceptance of price increases. These increases are linked to difficulties in sourcing logs and the rising cost of energy. As a result, Germany is finding it increasingly difficult to source timber within its own territory and is turning abroad, which is destabilizing the French market. This pressure on the resource is driving changes in sawmill pricing. In a favorable context, price increases of 5 to 10% could be absorbed. But under deteriorated conditions, with buyers weakened in terms of cash flow, it becomes complicated."

"The geopolitical situation is affecting consumption: households are buying less, out of fear," explains Emmanuel Guillemette (Guillemette & Cie). "This has consequences for new decking projects, window replacements, or flooring installation."

According to François Laresche, numerous business failures are to be deplored, "from developers to builders, including in the timber-frame housing sector, as well as among carpenters, even though the latter are less affected."

Alexandre Boisson (Bridge Wood Expertise Agent at Florian Legno) makes an identical observation: "First- and second-stage processors are struggling to preserve their margins. The financial situation is tight, notably due to the difficulty of passing on the rising cost of materials to sale prices, creating a particularly damaging squeeze effect. In the United Kingdom, a major consumer of hardwoods, large groups with 1,500 employees shut down at the end of 2025."

The sluggishness of European demand has an international impact. Joris Verhaegue, director of Callens African Woods, a Belgian importer of tropical hardwoods from Africa, notes: "In Africa, production capacity is not being used at 100% due to insufficient demand. However, fixed rates remain high, which is destabilizing the economic balance of producers." According to Jean-François Guilbert, director general of FrenchTimber, the latest surveys conducted in Scandinavia and Germany show that, over a three-month horizon, 63% of German players and 52% of Swedish players anticipate a rise in timber prices. "Despite these tensions, the timber market persists, with steady demand, particularly for pallets and construction," he assures.

Middle East, tariffs… An unstable geopolitical context

In North America, Canadian sawmills are heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, points out Emmanuel Guillemette (Guillemette & Cie). "Under normal circumstances, 80% of Canadian timber production is consumed by the United States. However, with tariffs of 45% borne by American buyers, they are saying they can no longer afford to buy. In Europe, we used to select the top grades of Canadian timber, while lower-grade products were destined for the American market, which no longer absorbs them. The result: sawmill closures, since they cannot sell just 20% of their production."

The oil crisis is also affecting the timber sector. "Sawmills located deep in the forest have no access to electricity and consume between 7,000 and 8,000 liters of diesel per month to run their operations: log extraction, tree felling, machine operation, truck loading… The cost of diesel has risen considerably in Brazil over the past nine months, driving a general increase in prices," continues Emmanuel Guillemette.

"For panels, prices are strongly influenced by the conflict in the Middle East. Since panels incorporate petroleum-derived components, price instability is significant," observes David Cunaud (Dispano). "Timber prices are soaring due to rising ancillary costs: road transport, packaging, electricity, and heat treatment," adds Callens African Woods. "Transport in particular has become around 10 euros more expensive per cubic meter, an increase passed on to customers. This is a situation we are experiencing ourselves too."

"European supply chains relying on trucking are experiencing a marked impact," adds Julien Renaud. "All purchases, in France as in the rest of Europe, factor in higher logistics costs. We are negotiating with suppliers to limit these increases, which can be significant — for example, up to 250 euros extra per truck for shipments from Poland." What weighs most heavily is the illegible nature of the situation.

"The current geopolitical context is generating strong uncertainty, which is pushing buyers to limit their commitments to the strict minimum and reduce their stocks as much as possible," analyzes Alexandre Boisson. "Lack of visibility is a key factor: companies would rather face identified difficulties."

Growing tensions on supply
Tensions over the material are emerging at various points around the globe. "In Canada, there is a resource shortage in British Columbia. For 150 years, primary forests aged 700 to 1,000 years have been logged there, and we are now reaching the end of that resource. The government, which owns the forests, is allocating increasingly reduced concessions each year," recounts Emmanuel Guillemette.

Overall, "supply is the most critical issue," adds Alexandre Boisson. "Climate hazards are greatly affecting forests, making access to quality material increasingly difficult. This trend is expected to intensify, driving prices up further. The intrinsic properties of the wood are deteriorating, and the resource is becoming scarcer, which reinforces its precious, even luxury, character. This concerns hardwood species as a whole."

Tensions also exist over the availability of oak, particularly from Eastern European countries, observes David Cunaud. "European forests are affected by various phenomena, including bark beetles in France and Germany. Northern timber is also under pressure, especially since Russian species are no longer on the market." Industrial users of oak, particularly those who process it, "report growing difficulties in sourcing supply. This wood remains in high demand, but the constraint on the resource is increasing."

Beyond climate hazards, "the anti-dumping measures put in place by Europe on hardwood plywood from China have severely disrupted supply chains since December," notes David Cunaud.

Rising prices

For Louis Vandecasteele (Vandecasteele), "today we are in a phase of structurally high prices. Volatility has disappeared in favor of a fixed cost linked to certification and legal scarcity. Availability is limited and strictly controlled, particularly for ipe and cumaru species."

Year over year, inflation is particularly pronounced for tropical woods, notes Emmanuel Guillemette. "The lower end of the range is around 600 dollars per cubic meter (cumaru, muiracatiara), while for ipe, the increase reaches 1,500 dollars per cubic meter."

An increase fueled by American buying behavior: "When they need a product, they treat price as secondary!" Cumaru has gone from 1,350 to 2,350 dollars. The market is following, but with volumes sharply declining.

As for European production, it is slowing its sales to the United States. "In 2025, exports reached 3.6 million cubic meters, compared with 3.9 million in 2024, down from a usual level of around 4 million cubic meters (up to 7 million in 2007, a record year)," compares Jean-François Guilbert.

Sea freight: for now, a moderate cost increase
Transport prices have so far changed little, "with an increase limited to around 2% on containers between Europe and Asia," indicates Jean-François Guilbert. But the situation could worsen in connection with the geopolitical context. "China and India are the two largest consumers of Southeast Asian timber, but Europe continues to buy," details Emmanuel Guillemette. "Shipping costs there are rising sharply, particularly due to longer distances: it takes 15 days of sailing between Abidjan or Libreville and Le Havre, while the transit time between Singapore and Le Havre has gone from 3 to 6 weeks."

Strategic importance of stock

Rising logistics prices, fluctuating sea freight rates, increasing production costs in countries of origin… "In this context, securing volumes and ensuring supply reliability have become paramount. Thanks to our stock position, Vandecasteele Houtimport offers greater stability to its customers. We have more than 30,000 m³ of wood for outdoor use, spread across 35 species," notes Louis Vandecasteele.

"Storage capacity, agility, and the company's responsiveness are decisive advantages," adds Julien Renaud. "One of Henry Timber's strengths lies in its stock levels, which allow us to ensure strong availability across our entire range (softwoods, hardwoods, exotics) and to respond quickly to market demand."

Callens African Woods (trading and importing tropical woods exclusively from Africa) holds a stock of around 30,000 m³. "We were able to secure volumes upstream through CITES agreements," notes Patrick Gitsels, purchasing manager.

EUDR: a need for clarification

Regarding the EUDR, "significant uncertainty remains," regrets Jean-François Guilbert. "Industry players are awaiting clarifications from the European Commission. The latest information points to implementation in 2026 for large companies and in 2027 for smaller ones, but many questions remain unanswered, particularly regarding the definition of 'operator placing on the market' in the case of processed products. For example, when Europe exports sawn timber that is processed elsewhere and the resulting furniture is sold in Europe, who is the first operator placing it on the market? This uncertainty makes it impossible to know whether to apply or postpone the requirements."

In this context, "importers and users are seeking to diversify their sources of supply, particularly in the face of Chinese restrictions on certain flows. They want both competitive prices and suitable quality, while Europe offers a diversity of products, such as boards or flitches."

The upcoming EUDR "marks a major shift compared to the EUTR," affirms Louis Vandecasteele. "The EUDR goes further by requiring precise geolocation of plots, reliance on satellite data, and mandatory submission of a due diligence statement via the European TRACES system. At Vandecasteele Houtimport, we are prepared for this change."

For Pascal Fairier (Peltier Bois), "the EUTR was already demanding, the EUDR is going to push us to do even better. This is a good thing; we need to bring wood onto the market that is sound in terms of traceability and environmental quality. We have been making major efforts in this direction for many years. Our imported products are largely certified. We conduct EUTR control and compliance audits every year, and we push our customers to favor labeled products."

David Cunaud sees the EUDR as a mechanism "that should encourage more responsible purchasing practices, and pull the market upward. It will not call forest certifications and chain-of-custody systems into question. On the contrary, these will be solid supports. The EUDR aims to guarantee the absence of deforestation, and does not reach the level of stringency of certifications when it comes to responsible and sustainable forest management."

"We are actively anticipating the implementation of the EUDR by working with suppliers," recounts Hicham Chine (Denderwood). "We are collecting the information needed for the due diligence statement without waiting for the regulatory deadlines. The goal is to avoid any bottleneck situation at year-end and not put suppliers under pressure. The requirements cover, among other things, forest management plans, plot geolocation, and integration into European systems such as TRACES. Suppliers are being asked to provide data in GeoJSON format. African partners are the most advanced, notably thanks to their experience with PAFC (geolocation and forest inventory). On the Brazilian side, more effort is still needed."

But this new European regulation "is seen as penalizing for French companies, which are often medium-sized, family-run, and highly exposed," warns Alexandre Boisson. "Small-scale processors, especially in log sawing, rely on a traditional model that may no longer be viable in the future given these constraints."

CITES blocks ipe and cumaru

Two flagship tropical species, ipe and cumaru, have been subject to CITES since the end of 2024, "which has led to a drop in volumes and a sharp price increase in 2026, on the order of +30% year over year," reports Julien Renaud.

For Dominik Mohr (CID Bois), this international trade convention "constitutes a major obstacle. Delays and difficulties in obtaining documents — whether export permits issued by countries of origin or import permits issued by French and European authorities — are slowing down flows. Since many species were listed under CITES at the end of 2023, administrations are not yet fully ready to handle these new requirements. Processes remain lengthy, with delays ranging from a few weeks to several months, leading to goods being held up."

The case of cumaru illustrates these difficulties: "This species includes five subspecies with distinct botanical names," notes Hicham Chine. "Discrepancies can arise between the documents and the actual contents of the containers, which creates bottlenecks. To avoid such situations, Denderwood asks its suppliers to be particularly rigorous and to comply with CITES requirements."

According to Pascal Fairier, "ipe, cumaru, doussie, and padauk will gradually disappear from the European landscape. Either due to importer fatigue from spending their time on complex requests and undergoing inspections, or due to customers/consumers turning away because they don't want to distribute/use CITES-listed products. A shift in demand will therefore take place."

Among the alternative species available at Callens are azobe and okan, very heavy, water-resistant woods in demand in the Netherlands. Callens is also highlighting species such as mukulungu, which is "stable and durable (class 4), or tali, suited to structural uses and able to withstand humidity constraints," indicates Joris Verhaegue.

But the widespread adoption of other species isn't automatic. "Bringing them to market is a long and demanding process: testing, customer validation, sales efforts. The market is therefore in a fragile and very complicated situation," stresses François Laresche. The challenge now is to shift toward other, so-called secondary, species, "such as garapa, itauba, or muiracatiara in South America, but also toward African species such as padauk, or Indonesian species such as kapur," lists Julien Renaud. "This transition is already underway and involves significant volumes. Henry Timber is also betting on bamboo, as a distributor of the Dasso brand. Bamboo decking should gain market share against exotic wood and composite materials. The challenge is to convert our customers, mainly distributors, who have historically been positioned on ipe and cumaru. With the sharp rise in prices and the scarcity of volumes, it is becoming necessary to prepare for the 2027 pre-season with other species."

"That said, French trading companies are not yet ready, due to their display habits, product listings, stock levels, and their tendency to commercially champion these woods," notes Julien Renaud. "As long as they can maintain these listings, they resist change. Introducing other species means acquiring new expertise, developing new sales arguments. It's up to us to support this transition. In 2026, the ambition is to replace a significant share of ipe and cumaru volumes, which still accounted for 60% of exotic wood volumes in France, according to the 2025 LCB survey." The goal is to avoid introducing entirely new products with no track record, in order to limit risks, particularly for wood decking, a market "that is doing well and where it is important to prevent disputes."

Tropical species: purchasing shifts toward Africa

"Difficulties are piling up at the moment, starting with the situation in the Middle East, which is the main problem. Its impact is expected to be felt over the medium term and should last several months," admits Hicham Chine.

In Asia, the effects are already being felt. "The rise in oil prices is directly affecting our producers of Southeast Asian tropical wood, driving up production costs. At the same time, local currencies, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia, have appreciated against the dollar. Until now, producers had not adjusted their export prices, but they will have to. This raises the question of production: should logging continue or should producers wait? The species concerned include merbau, rubberwood, and meranti, among others."

In the African market, the situation remains for now "stable, with steady volumes. Lead times are slightly longer, due in particular to vessel availability and administrative constraints, especially those linked to CITES. The main species involved are padauk, tali, mukulungu, and afrormosia. As a major player in these products, Denderwood plans its supply eight to ten months in advance, which helps manage these constraints. In Africa, supply chains are simpler, with integrated operators who are at once forest owners, loggers, sawyers, and exporters. In Brazil and Asia, by contrast, the situation is more complex, with distinct players at each stage."

In South America, "difficulties persist around two main points: species subject to CITES, notably ipe and cumaru, and delays linked to the Brazilian forestry and water administration, which takes time to authorize goods for export." For François Laresche, "industrial users, particularly in exterior joinery or staircases, need a regular supply, which heightens tensions. We are seeing a shift in purchasing toward Africa, where CITES requirements have been integrated with more rigor than in Brazil."

Softwoods: from the Gulf states to North Africa

For 2026, the situation regarding softwoods is becoming more uncertain, explains François Laresche. "The geopolitical climate is creating risks for the markets. Areas such as Egypt or the Arabian Peninsula, major consumers of Scandinavian timber, could be affected. The Scandinavians have reduced their production and are working down their stocks." The situation in the Red Sea could also disrupt flows toward Southeast Asia. "We export 320,000 m3 of softwood per month from Europe to the Gulf," adds Jean-François Guilbert. "The Scandinavians are running promotions to sell softwood in North Africa. This is creating tensions with the French market. All of this is happening in a rush, with France being affected by these knock-on effects."

Photos credits : Tekabois , Denderwood , FrenchTimber , Florian groupe

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