The impact of the geopolitical situation on transport and operating costs, increased supply difficulties, sluggish demand in Europe, the growing importance of eco-certifications… Internationally, the timber trade requires significant resilience from stakeholders. In the midst of this storm, having solid stocks becomes an asset, but exporting remains an opportunity to seize. By Hubert Vialatte

Between the conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, a sluggish construction market, and a political deadlock in France, the timber construction sector is weathering the storm. All the while, it is gaining market share. “Whether it’s rough or planed timber, we had an excellent year in 2025 and a good start to 2026,” says Julien Renaud, head of Henry Timber. “The timber sector is performing better than the general timber industry and other materials, and specialized timber agencies are proving more resilient.” “

That being said, for François Laresche, former president of the LCB and vice-president of the UICCB, the heart of the problem “lies in the construction market’s acceptance of price increases. These increases are linked to difficulties in sourcing logs and the rising cost of energy. Thus, Germany is finding it increasingly difficult to source timber domestically and is turning to foreign suppliers, which is destabilizing the French market. This pressure on resources is driving changes in sawn timber prices. In a favorable market environment, price increases of 5 to 10% could be absorbed. But in deteriorating conditions, with buyers facing cash flow problems, it becomes complicated.”

“The geopolitical situation is impacting consumption: households are buying less, out of fear,” explains Emmanuel Guillemette (Guillemette & Cie). “This is affecting projects for new patios, window replacements, and parquet flooring.”

“According to François Laresche, numerous business failures are to be deplored, ‘from developers to builders, including in the timber-frame house sector, as well as among carpenters, although the latter are less affected.’

Alexandre Boisson (Bridge Wood Expertise Agent at Florian Legno) makes the same observation: ‘Primary and secondary processors are encountering difficulties in maintaining their margins. The financial situation is strained, particularly due to the difficulty in passing on the increased cost of raw materials to selling prices, creating a particularly damaging squeeze. In the United Kingdom, a major consumer of hardwoods, large groups with 1,500 employees went out of business at the end of 2025.’

The sluggishness of European demand is having international repercussions.” Joris Verhaegue, director of Callens African Woods, a Belgian importer of African tropical hardwoods, observes: “In Africa, production capacity is not being used at 100% due to insufficient demand. However, fixed prices remain high, which weakens the economic balance of producers.” According to Jean-François Guilbert, managing director of FrenchTimber, recent surveys conducted in Scandinavia and Germany show that, three months from now, 63% of German and 52% of Swedish players anticipate a rise in timber prices. “Despite these tensions, the timber market persists, with constant demand, particularly for pallets and construction,” he asserts.

“In Africa, production capacity is not being used at 100% due to insufficient demand. However, fixed prices remain high, which weakens the economic balance of producers,” says Jean-François Guilbert (FrenchTimber).

Middle East, tariffs… An unstable geopolitical context
In North America, Canadian sawmills are heavily impacted by American tariffs, notes Emmanuel Guillemette (Guillemette & Cie). “Normally, 80% of Canadian timber production is consumed by the United States. However, with tariffs of 45% borne by American customers, they are saying they can no longer afford to buy. In Europe, we selected the best grades of Canadian timber, while the lower-grade products were destined for the American market, which is no longer absorbing them. The result: sawmill closures, as they cannot sell only 20% of their production.”

The oil crisis is also impacting the timber industry. “Sawmills located inside the forest don’t have access to electricity and consume between 7,000 and 8,000 liters of diesel per month to run their operations: extracting logs, felling trees, operating machinery, loading trucks… The cost of diesel has increased considerably in Brazil over the past nine months, leading to a general rise in prices,” continues Emmanuel Guillemette.

“Prices for solar panels are heavily influenced by the conflict in the Middle East. Since the panels incorporate petroleum-derived components, price volatility is significant,” observes David Cunaud (Dispano).

“Timber prices are soaring due to increased ancillary costs: road transport, packaging, electricity, and heat treatment,” adds Callens African Woods. “Transport, in particular, has increased by approximately €10 per cubic meter, a change passed on to customers. This is a situation we are experiencing ourselves.”

“European truck deliveries are bearing the brunt of the impact,” adds Julien Renaud. “All purchases, in France as in the rest of Europe, include an increase in logistics costs. We are negotiating with suppliers to limit these increases, which can be significant, for example, up to an additional €250 per truck for deliveries from Poland.”

The lack of clarity in the situation is the biggest challenge. “The current geopolitical context is generating significant uncertainty, which is pushing buyers to limit their commitments to the bare minimum and reduce their inventories as much as possible,” explains Alexandre Boisson. Lack of visibility is a key factor: companies would prefer to face difficulties that are already identified.

Growing Supply Tensions
Streets over the material are appearing in various parts of the world. “In Canada, there is a shortage of resources in British Columbia. For 150 years, old-growth forests between 700 and 1,000 years old have been harvested there, and we are now reaching the end of this resource. The government, which owns the forests, is allocating a significantly smaller number of concessions each year,” explains Emmanuel Guillemette.

“European forests are affected by various phenomena, including bark beetles in France and Germany. Northern timber is also under pressure, especially since there are no longer any Russian species on the market,” says David Cunaud (Dispano).

Overall, “supply is the most critical issue,” adds Alexandre Boisson. “Climate hazards are greatly affecting forests, making access to quality timber increasingly difficult. This trend is expected to intensify, with a corresponding increase in prices. The intrinsic properties of wood are deteriorating, and the resource is becoming scarcer, which reinforces its precious, even luxurious, nature. This applies to all hardwood species.”

There are thus tensions regarding the availability of oak, particularly from Eastern European countries, observes David Cunaud. “European forests are affected by various phenomena, including bark beetles in France and Germany.” Northern timber is also under pressure, especially since there are no longer any Russian species on the market. Industrial users of oak, particularly those involved in processing, "report increasing difficulties in obtaining supplies. This wood remains in high demand, but the pressure on the resource is increasing."

In addition to weather-related risks, "the anti-dumping measures implemented by Europe on hardwood plywood from China have severely disrupted supply chains since December," notes David Cunaud.

Rising prices
According to Louis Vandecasteele, "today, we are in a phase of structurally high prices. Volatility has disappeared, replaced by a fixed cost linked to certification and legal scarcity. Availability is limited and strictly controlled, particularly for ipe and cumaru."

Over the past year, inflation has been particularly pronounced for tropical hardwoods, notes Emmanuel Guillemette. “The lower end of the price range is around $600 per cubic meter (cumaru, muiracatiara), while for ipe, the increase reaches $1,500 per cubic meter.”

This rise is fueled by the behavior of American consumers: “When they need a product, they consider price secondary!” Cumaru has gone from $1,350 to $2,350. The market is following suit, but with significantly reduced volumes.

As for European production, it is slowing down its sales to the United States. “In 2025, exports reached 3.6 million cubic meters, compared to 3.9 million in 2024, down from a usual level of around 4 million cubic meters (up to 7 million in 2007, a record year),” explains Jean-François Guilbert.

Maritime freight: a moderate increase in costs for now. Transport prices have remained relatively stable so far, “with an increase limited to around 2% for containers between Europe and Asia,” says Jean-François Guilbert. But the situation could worsen, linked to the geopolitical context. “China and India are the two largest consumers of timber in Southeast Asia, but Europe continues to buy,” explains Emmanuel Guillemette. Shipping costs are rising sharply, particularly due to longer distances: it takes 15 days by sea between Abidjan or Libreville and Le Havre, while the journey time between Singapore and Le Havre has increased from 3 to 6 weeks.

Strategic Importance of Stock
Rising logistics costs, fluctuating maritime freight rates, and increasing production costs in countries of origin... “In this context, securing volumes and ensuring reliable supply become paramount. Thanks to our stock levels, Vandecasteele Houtimport offers greater stability to its customers. We have over 30,000 m³ of timber for landscaping, distributed across 35 species,” emphasizes Louis Vandecasteele.

“The company’s storage capacity, agility, and responsiveness are key advantages,” continues Julien Renaud. “One of Henry Timber’s strengths lies in its stock levels, which allow us to guarantee high availability across all product ranges (softwood, hardwood, and exotic woods) and to respond quickly to market demands.” “

Callens African Woods (trading and importing tropical timber, exclusively from Africa) has a stock of approximately 30,000 m³. “We were able to secure volumes upstream through CITES agreements,” says Patrick Gitsels, Purchasing Manager.

“We are actively anticipating the implementation of the EU Timber Regulation by working with suppliers. We are collecting the information necessary for the due diligence declaration, without waiting for regulatory deadlines. The goal is to avoid any bottlenecks at the end of the year and not put suppliers under pressure,” says Hicham Chine (Denderwood).

EU Timber Regulation: A Need for Clarification
Regarding the EU Timber Regulation, “significant uncertainty remains,” laments Jean-François Guilbert. “Stakeholders are awaiting clarification from the European Commission. The latest information suggests implementation in 2026 for large companies and in 2027 for smaller ones, but many questions remain unanswered, particularly concerning the definition of ‘placer on the market’ in the case of processed products. For example, when Europe exports sawn timber that is processed elsewhere, and the furniture made from this wood is sold in Europe, who is the first placer on the market? This uncertainty makes it impossible to know whether to implement or postpone the regulations.”

In this context, “importers and users are seeking to diversify their sources of supply, especially in light of Chinese restrictions on certain trade flows. They want both competitive prices and suitable quality, while Europe offers a wide variety of products, such as planks and blocks.”

“The future EU Timber Regulation (EUTR) marks a major evolution compared to the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR),” affirms Louis Vandecasteele. “The EUTR goes further by requiring precise geolocation of plots, reliance on satellite data, and the mandatory submission of a due diligence declaration via the European TRACES system. At Vandecasteele Houtimport, we are prepared for this change.”

For Pascal Fairier (Peltier Bois), “the EUTR was already demanding; the EUTR will encourage us to do better. This is a good thing; we must put quality timber on the market in terms of traceability and environmental quality. We have been making significant efforts in this direction for many years. The vast majority of our imported products are certified. We conduct EUTR compliance audits every year, and we encourage our customers to prioritize certified products.”

David Cunaud sees the EU Sustainable Forestry Directive (EUFD) as a mechanism "that should encourage more responsible purchasing practices and raise the bar for the market. It will not undermine forest certifications and chain of custody. On the contrary, they will be strong supports. The EUFD aims to guarantee the absence of deforestation and does not reach the level of requirements of certifications regarding responsible and sustainable forest management."

"We are actively anticipating the implementation of the EUFD by working with suppliers," explains Hicham Chine (Denderwood). "We are collecting the information necessary for the due diligence declaration, without waiting for regulatory deadlines. The goal is to avoid any deadlock at the end of the year and not put suppliers under pressure. The requirements include, among other things, forest management plans, the geolocation of plots, and integration into European systems such as TRACES. Suppliers are asked to provide data in GeoJSON format." African partners are the most advanced, particularly thanks to their experience with the PAFC (forest geolocation and inventory). On the Brazilian side, further efforts are needed.

But this new European regulation “is perceived as detrimental to French businesses, which are often medium-sized, family-run, and highly exposed,” warns Alexandre Boisson. “Small-scale processing companies, especially in log sawmilling, rely on a traditional model that may no longer exist in the future given these constraints.”

CITES blocks ipe and cumaru
Two key tropical species, ipe and cumaru, have been subject to CITES since the end of 2024, “which has led to a decrease in volumes and a sharp increase in prices in 2026, on the order of +30% in one year,” reports Julien Renaud.

For Dominik Mohr (CID Bois), this international trade convention “constitutes a major obstacle. The delays and difficulties in obtaining documents, whether export permits issued by the countries of origin or import permits issued by French and European authorities, slow down the flow of goods. With many species having been listed under CITES at the end of 2023, the administrations are not yet fully prepared to manage these new requirements. The processes remain lengthy, with delays ranging from a few weeks to several months, resulting in the immobilization of goods.”

The case of cumaru illustrates these difficulties: “This species includes five subspecies with distinct botanical names,” explains Hicham Chine. “Discrepancies can arise between the documents and the actual contents of the containers, which leads to blockages. To avoid these situations, Denderwood asks its suppliers to be particularly rigorous and to comply with CITES requirements.” “According to Pascal Fairier, “ipe, cumaru, doussie, and padauk will gradually disappear from the European landscape. This will be due either to importers growing weary of complex applications and inspections, or to customers/consumers who do not wish to distribute or use CITES-listed products. A shift in demand will therefore occur.”

Among the alternative species available from Callens are azobé and okan, very heavy, water-resistant woods in demand in the Netherlands. Callens also highlights species such as mukulungu, which is “stable and durable (class 4), or tali, suitable for structural applications and meeting hygrometric requirements,” explains Joris Verhaegue.

But the widespread adoption of other wood species isn't automatic. "Bringing them to market is a long and demanding process: testing, customer validation, and sales efforts. The market is therefore in a fragile and very complex situation," emphasizes François Laresche.

The challenge now is to shift towards other, so-called secondary species, "such as garapa, itauba, or muiracatiara in South America, but also towards African species like padauk, or Indonesian species like kapur," explains Julien Renaud. This transition is already underway and involves significant volumes. Henry Timber is also investing in bamboo, as a distributor of the Dasso brand. Bamboo decking is expected to gain market share against exotic woods and composite materials. The challenge lies in converting our customers, primarily distributors, who have historically focused on ipe and cumaru. With the sharp rise in prices and the scarcity of volumes, it is becoming necessary to prepare for the 2027 pre-season with other species.

“However, French timber merchants are not yet ready, due to their established display practices, product listings, stock levels, and their tendency to commercially defend these woods,” explains Julien Renaud. “As long as they can maintain these references, they resist change. Introducing other species means acquiring new knowledge and developing new sales pitches. It is up to us to support this transition.” By 2026, the goal is to replace a significant portion of the ipe and cumaru volumes, which still represented 60% of exotic wood volumes in France, according to the LCB 2025 survey.

The objective is to avoid introducing entirely new products without prior experience, in order to limit risks, particularly for wood decking, a market "that is performing well and where it is important to prevent disputes."

Tropical Timber: Shift in Purchasing to Africa

“The difficulties are piling up, with the situation in the Middle East being the primary problem. Its impact is expected in the medium term and should last several months,” admits Hicham Chine.

In Asia, the effects are already being felt. “The rise in oil prices directly affects our tropical timber producers in Southeast Asia, leading to an increase in production costs.

At the same time, local currencies, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia, have appreciated against the dollar. Until now, producers had not adjusted their export prices, but they will have to. This raises the question of production: should we continue harvesting or wait? The affected species include, among others, merbau, rubberwood, and meranti.”

In the African market, the situation remains “stable for the time being, with constant volumes.” Delivery times are slightly longer, due in particular to vessel availability and administrative constraints, especially those related to CITES. The main species involved are padauk, tali, mukulungu, and afrormosia. As a major player in these products, Denderwood anticipates its supplies eight to ten months in advance, which allows it to manage these constraints. In Africa, supply chains are simpler, with integrated stakeholders who are simultaneously forest owners, loggers, sawmills, and exporters. In contrast, in Brazil and Asia, the situation is more complex, with separate stakeholders at each stage.

In South America, “difficulties persist around two main points: species subject to CITES, particularly ipe and cumaru, and obstacles related to the Brazilian forestry administration, which is slow to authorize goods for export.” According to François Laresche, “manufacturers, especially in exterior joinery and staircases, need a regular supply, which exacerbates the tensions. We are seeing a shift in purchases towards Africa, where CITES requirements have been implemented more rigorously than in Brazil.”

Softwoods: from the Gulf countries to North Africa
For 2026, the situation regarding softwoods is becoming more uncertain, explains François Laresche. “The geopolitical climate is creating risks for the markets. Areas like Egypt and the Arabian Peninsula, major consumers of Scandinavian timber, could be affected. The Scandinavians have reduced their production and are selling off their stocks.” “

The situation in the Red Sea could also disrupt trade flows to Southeast Asia. “We export 320,000 m³ of softwood per month from Europe to the Gulf,” adds Jean-François Guilbert. “The Scandinavians are launching promotions to sell softwood in North Africa. This is creating tension with the French market. All of this is happening in a rush, as France is affected by these knock-on effects.”

By Hubert Vialatte
Photo credits: Florian Group, Vandecasteele©Illias Teirlinck, FrenchTimber, Denderwood, Tekabois, ©DMBP

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